Small business optimism in the United States declined slightly in October, according to the latest NFIB Small Business Optimism Index. The index dropped by 0.6 points to 98.2 but remains above its long-term average of 98. The Uncertainty Index also saw a significant decrease, falling 12 points from September to reach 88, which is the lowest level so far this year.
Anthony Smith, state director for the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) in Oregon, commented on how these national figures may not fully reflect conditions within the state. “Small business optimism is hovering just above the all-time average, which is definitely a positive, and the decline in uncertainty at the national level is welcome news. But here in Oregon, I suspect uncertainty is on the rise. The state’s unemployment rate continues to be higher than the national average, lawmakers in Salem are dreaming up new ways to take out their frustrations with Washington, D.C. by dialing up the pain on Oregon taxpayers, and the governor has finally signed her $4.3 billion transportation bill into law. Small Business Saturday is just around the corner, and hopefully we’ll see strong local sales between now and the end of the year, but I’ll bet I know what else is on small business owners’ holiday wish lists this year—an opportunity for Oregon voters to have the final say on all those new transportation taxes and fees.”
Bill Dunkelberg, chief economist at NFIB, noted that several challenges remain for small businesses nationwide: “Optimism among small businesses declined slightly in October as owners report lower sales and reduced profits. Additionally, many firms are still navigating a labor shortage and want to hire but are having difficulty doing so, with labor quality being the top issue for Main Street.”
The October survey revealed that concerns about labor quality have grown among small business owners; 27% identified it as their most pressing problem—a nine-point increase from September and close to record highs seen in late 2021. Labor quality issues were cited more often than taxes or other challenges.
Sales figures also reflected some of these pressures; a net negative 13% of respondents reported higher nominal sales over the past three months compared to previous periods.
Price changes appear less volatile than before: both actual and planned price increases dropped slightly from September levels. Twenty-one percent reported raising prices (down three points), while thirty percent expect to do so over the next quarter (down one point).
In addition to releasing its monthly data report—which serves as a widely used indicator by policymakers such as the Federal Reserve—NFIB announced a new podcast titled “Small Business by the Numbers.” Hosted by Holly Wade of NFIB’s Research Center, it will cover trends impacting small enterprises across America.
NFIB’s Small Business Optimism Index aggregates responses from member businesses across various sectors but does not break down results at individual state levels.
Founded in 1943 as a nonprofit association representing independent businesses nationwide—including those employing fewer than ten people—NFIB continues its advocacy work at both federal and state levels.
