Small business optimism in Oregon declined in September, according to the latest data from the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB). The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index dropped by 2.0 points to 98.8, marking its first decrease in three months. Despite this, the index remains above its 52-year average of 98. The Uncertainty Index also increased, rising 7 points from August to 100, which is among the highest readings in over five decades.
Anthony Smith, state director for NFIB in Oregon, commented on the findings: “What is extremely noteworthy is that although small business optimism slipped in September, it didn’t fall below its 52-year average, especially when you remember how many post-pandemic years – years! – it took to finally rise above it. Sure, there’s economic uncertainty out there, which is intensified in Oregon by unforced errors like recently passed transportation tax increases and further talk of raising taxes on businesses and workers, but there are federal policies now in place, most importantly the permanency of the 20% Small Business Deduction, that are helping to offset other challenging variables like inflation and supply chain issues.”
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index is widely used as a measure of the health of small businesses in the United States. Policymakers such as the Federal Reserve and Congressional leaders rely on this index for insights into Main Street enterprises, which employ about half of all American workers and generate more net new jobs than large corporations. The survey represents a national sample of NFIB-member small business owners, who typically employ between one and nine people and report average annual sales of around $500,000.
Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB Chief Economist, added: “Optimism among small business owners decreased in September. While most owners evaluate their own business as currently healthy, they are having to manage rising inflationary pressures, slower sales expectations, and ongoing labor market challenges. Although uncertainty is high, small business owners remain resilient as they seek to better understand how policy changes will impact their operations.”
The September report highlighted several ongoing challenges. Supply chain disruptions and inflation remain significant concerns. Fourteen percent of owners cited inflation as their top problem, an increase from August. Sixty-four percent reported supply chain issues affecting their business, up 10 points from the previous month. More owners are raising prices, with a net 24% increasing average selling prices and 31% planning further increases in the next three months. However, there was a positive development in actual earnings changes, which reached their highest level since December 2021.
The NFIB has been advocating for small and independent business owners for over 80 years and continues to provide updates and resources for its members.
