The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) reported that its Small Business Optimism Index dropped by 0.2 points in January to 99.3, though it remains above the long-term average of 98. The results were released on February 10, 2026.
Anthony Smith, state director for NFIB in Oregon, commented on the findings: “Small businesses need consistency. When lawmakers keep moving the goalposts, like attempting to disconnect from the bonus depreciation provisions of the 2025 federal tax bill, we can expect to see uncertainty continue to rise, and investments in new equipment and machinery to stall.”
Of the ten components measured by the index, three increased while seven declined. Expected real sales volume was noted as a significant positive shift with a six-point increase. The Uncertainty Index also rose by seven points from December, reaching a value of 91. According to NFIB, this was primarily due to more business owners expressing doubt about whether it is a good time to expand.
The latest report introduced the NFIB Small Business Employment Index, which consolidates various jobs-related survey responses into one figure. This index stood at 101.6 in January—about 1.5 points above its historical average—indicating what NFIB described as a balanced labor market.
Bill Dunkelberg, chief economist at NFIB, said: “While GDP is rising, small businesses are still waiting for noticeable economic growth. Despite this, more owners are reporting better business health and anticipating higher sales.”
Other key data from January include an increase in insurance costs or availability concerns among business owners; thirteen percent identified this as their main issue—a four-point rise since December and matching levels last seen in late 2018.
Sixty percent of surveyed owners reported capital outlays over the past six months—the highest proportion since November 2023 and up four points from December.
Additionally, fewer respondents said they paid higher interest rates on their most recent loan compared to previous months—a net negative six percent versus nine percent in December—suggesting improved conditions for borrowing among small businesses.
In terms of overall business health assessments: fourteen percent rated their business as excellent (a five-point increase), fifty-four percent said good (unchanged), twenty-seven percent chose fair (down seven points), and four percent selected poor (up one point).
NFIB continues its advocacy work for small businesses nationwide through policy efforts and information resources available online.
