Small business optimism rises above historic average; labor quality remains key concern

Randy Gould - Field Sales Representative
Randy Gould - Field Sales Representative
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Oregon’s state director for the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB), Anthony Smith, commented on the recent release of the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, which rose by 0.5 points in August to 100.8. This figure is nearly three points higher than the index’s 52-year average of 98. According to the data, four out of ten components in the index increased, four decreased, and two remained unchanged. The most significant factor contributing to this rise was an increase in small business owners expecting real sales to improve.

“It’s encouraging to see the Small Business Optimism Index consistently registering numbers above its 52-year average. It wasn’t long ago, November of last year, that the optimism index experienced 34 consecutive months below its average. A major contributing factor boosting optimism nationally is the recent passage of small-business-friendly tax policy changes, including the now-permanent 20% Small Business Tax Deduction. It remains to be seen whether Oregon lawmakers will embrace these taxpayer-friendly policies or respond by unnecessarily raising taxes on Oregon’s small businesses,” said Smith.

The NFIB monthly Small Business Optimism Index serves as a key measurement for assessing America’s small business economy and is referenced by organizations such as the Federal Reserve and Congressional leaders when evaluating economic health across Main Street businesses nationwide. The report reflects responses from NFIB-member small-business owners but does not break down results by state. Typical members employ between one and nine people with annual gross sales averaging $500,000.

NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg added perspective on national trends: “Optimism increased slightly in August with more owners reporting stronger sales expectations and improved earnings. While owners have cited an improvement in overall business health, labor quality remained the top issue on Main Street.”

Key findings from August include improvements in reported business health: 14% rated their business as excellent (up one point), while 54% described it as good (up two points). Twenty-seven percent called their business fair (down four points), and four percent reported poor conditions (unchanged). Labor quality continued as a main concern for many respondents—21% identified it as their single most important problem.

Job openings also shifted slightly; 32% of all owners reported unfilled positions they could not fill during August, a decrease from July levels and marking a low not seen since July 2020. Additionally, fewer owners raised selling prices compared to previous months—the net percentage dropped three points from July to a seasonally adjusted net of 21%, which is this year’s lowest reading so far.

NFIB has represented independent businesses at both federal and state levels for over eight decades as a nonprofit organization dedicated solely to supporting small business interests.



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