John Lettieri, President and CEO of Economic Innovation Group | Official Website
John Lettieri, President and CEO of Economic Innovation Group | Official Website
Among Oregon’s counties, Malheur County and Sherman County saw the largest increase in transfer dependency over the past 10 years, surging 5.7% from 2012.
Jefferson County followed with the second-largest increase in transfer dependency, increasing 5.4% from 31.9% in 2012 to 37.3% in 2022, and an overall increase of 28.8% from 1970’s 8.5% transfer dependency. This trend is reflected in per capita amounts, with residents of Jefferson County receiving an average of $16,175 in transfer income in 2022, up from $10,912 in 2012 and more than double the $1,764 recorded in 1970.
Additionally, Wheeler County had the highest percentage of income derived from government transfers, at 40% in 2022, making it the county with the highest overall transfer dependency. Malheur County and Curry County followed closely behind, with transfer dependency rates of 38.6% and 37.6% in 2022, respectively.
Compared to 1970, Wheeler County increased by 31.5%, while Malheur County and Curry County have increased by 30% and 27.5%, respectively, showing sustained reliance on government transfers. Residents in Wheeler County received an average of $17,204 in transfers per capita, with Malheur County and Curry County close behind at $14,828 and $19,520, respectively.
For comparison, the statewide average was 20.1% in 2022, showing a higher dependency than the national average of 17.6%. On a per capita level, this translates to $12,514 per resident in 2022, compared to $11,542 nationwide.
Government transfer payments are non-repayable funds provided by federal, state, or local governments to support individuals in need. These payments aim to stabilize economic conditions and provide financial support during hardships. Key programs include Social Security transfers (retirement benefits), Medicare transfers (healthcare for seniors), Medicaid transfers (healthcare for low-income individuals), and income maintenance transfers (financial assistance for basic needs).
In Oregon, reliance on government transfers was just 8.9% (or $2,117 per capita in inflation-adjusted 2022 dollars) in 1970. This has since increased to 20.1% (or $12,514 per capita) in 2022, reflecting a total increase of 11.2% since 1970. This shift is largely influenced by increased healthcare costs, and economic transformations that have reshaped income sources across the U.S.
In 2022, the primary government transfer programs in Oregon included:
- Social Security: $4,092 (32.7% of total transfers)
- Medicare: $2,677 (21.4% of total transfers)
- Medicaid: $3,265 (26.1% of total transfers)
- Income Maintenance Programs: $1,229 (9.8% of total transfers)
With 19.1% of the population aged 65 and older, Oregon has a significant demand for programs like Social Security and Medicare. However, counties with higher poverty rates also show elevated Medicaid and income maintenance participation.
Government transfers have long been a modest financial safety net, historically comprising only a small fraction of Americans' income. However, since the 1970s—sometimes dubbed the “Great Transfer-mation”—dependency has surged from 8.2% (or $2,022 per capita in inflation-adjusted 2022 dollars) in 1970 to 17.6% (or $11,542 per capita) in 2022 nationwide. In Oregon, reliance on government transfers has similarly increased from 8.9% (or $2,117 per capita) in 1970 to 20.1% (or $12,514 per capita) in 2022, reflecting broader national trends.
According to the Economic Innovation Group’s analysis, these trends are not merely short-term responses to economic pressures but rather reflect a profound, long-term transformation in how government support is integrated into American life. The study illustrates that structural shifts—from rising healthcare expenses and demographic changes to stagnant wages—have significantly increased dependency on government transfers.
| County | Dependency on Transfers (%) | Change Since 2012 | Change Since 1970 | Per Capita Amount (2022) | Per Capita Change Since 2012 | Per Capita Change Since 1970 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker County | 33.1% | 2.8% | 22.3% | $16,126 | $4,495 | $13,806 |
| Benton County | 14.7% | 0.8% | 8.5% | $8,108 | $1,728 | $6,867 |
| Clackamas County | 13.5% | 0.4% | 7.2% | $9,876 | $2,346 | $8,287 |
| Clatsop County | 27.2% | 2.6% | 16.8% | $14,613 | $4,053 | $12,249 |
| Columbia County | 25.3% | 2.5% | 15.8% | $13,612 | $3,792 | $11,590 |
| Coos County | 34.7% | 3% | 25.2% | $18,863 | $5,719 | $16,813 |
| Crook County | 30.3% | -0.9% | 21.3% | $15,745 | $3,649 | $13,745 |
| Curry County | 37.6% | 4.2% | 27.5% | $19,520 | $5,599 | $17,553 |
| Deschutes County | 17.5% | -3% | 8.2% | $12,560 | $2,709 | $10,349 |
| Douglas County | 35.5% | 4% | 26% | $17,552 | $4,943 | $15,536 |
| Gilliam County | 21.9% | 1.6% | 16.4% | $15,122 | $4,971 | $13,353 |
| Grant County | 31.9% | 3.9% | 22.4% | $16,346 | $5,239 | $14,190 |
| Harney County | 31.8% | 1.5% | 24.7% | $15,927 | $4,762 | $14,203 |
| Hood River County | 16.4% | 0.6% | 7.2% | $10,647 | $2,894 | $8,553 |
| Jackson County | 26.2% | 1.7% | 15.2% | $15,092 | $4,328 | $12,843 |
| Jefferson County | 37.3% | 5.4% | 28.8% | $16,175 | $5,263 | $14,494 |
| Josephine County | 34.6% | 0.9% | 19.9% | $18,070 | $4,853 | $15,031 |
| Klamath County | 34.7% | 3.8% | 27% | $16,370 | $4,639 | $14,552 |
| Lake County | 33.3% | 4.8% | 24.8% | $15,576 | $4,739 | $13,600 |
| Lane County | 24.4% | 2% | 15.9% | $13,693 | $3,869 | $11,879 |
| Lincoln County | 31.2% | 4.2% | 18.2% | $16,711 | $4,900 | $13,907 |
| Linn County | 30.4% | 2.8% | 20.9% | $15,952 | $4,693 | $14,084 |
| Malheur County | 38.6% | 5.7% | 30% | $14,828 | $4,765 | $13,064 |
| Marion County | 25.8% | 1.4% | 15.3% | $14,049 | $4,178 | $11,684 |
| Morrow County | 22.4% | 3.3% | 15.1% | $12,308 | $4,116 | $10,322 |
| Multnomah County | 15.3% | 0.4% | 5.8% | $10,688 | $2,735 | $8,059 |
| Polk County | 23.3% | 1.7% | 15.1% | $11,691 | $2,887 | $9,993 |
| Sherman County | 23.8% | 5.7% | 18.8% | $16,040 | $3,984 | $14,262 |
| Tillamook County | 29.2% | 1.1% | 17.2% | $15,976 | $4,196 | $13,607 |
| Umatilla County | 27.6% | 4.4% | 18.4% | $13,575 | $4,552 | $11,450 |
| Union County | 32% | 4.9% | 21.9% | $15,689 | $4,834 | $13,507 |
| Wallowa County | 30.9% | 1.4% | 21.2% | $16,286 | $3,566 | $14,073 |
| Wasco County | 29.1% | 4.1% | 20.4% | $15,141 | $4,227 | $13,060 |
| Washington County | 12.7% | 1% | 7.8% | $9,311 | $2,639 | $8,007 |
| Wheeler County | 40% | 2.6% | 31.5% | $17,204 | $5,448 | $15,355 |
| Yamhill County | 22% | 1.6% | 11.1% | $12,456 | $3,630 | $10,111 |
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